TRADE FORECAST: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF PROTECTIONISM
By Gordon Platt
Bankers are optimistic that financing will be available to support projected growth in world trade, but regulatory change and currency wars have them on edge.
Trade finance is the fuel that powers the engine of world trade, which is helping to pull the world economy out of recession. That fuel could get significantly more expensive, however, if the backers of Basel III get their way, trade bankers say, and world economic growth could suffer as a result.
A proposed increase in capital requirements will have a deleterious effect on the cost and availability of trade credit, bankers say. It will also throw sand in the gears of export initiatives, such as President Barack Obama's plan to double US exports and create jobs. Every $1 billion of exports supports 7, 400 US jobs, according to the Export-Import Bank.
Trade bankers contend that the short-term and self-liquidating nature of trade finance, which is often collateralized by the underlying shipment of goods, makes it one of the safest forms of lending. They are lobbying regulators to heed recommendations of G20 leaders to be flexible in applying new rules, so as not to disrupt global trade. Emerging markets are particularly vulnerable because they rely more heavily on letters of credit to facilitate trade. Bankers say current prices for trade finance cannot be sustained if banks are forced to pay more for their capital.
The currency wars are a bigger threat to trade, according to some bankers. They worry that protectionist forces will gain the upper hand if export-dependent economies seek to defend market shares through competitive devaluations. The controversy surrounding the undervalued Chinese renminbi and intervention by the central banks of Japan and Switzerland to halt the rise of their currencies show that there is a fine line between market-smoothing operations and currency manipulation, trade bankers say. Beggar-thy-neighbor currency policies could result in a trade war, leading to higher tariffs and other barriers to international commerce.
Meanwhile, the trade finance business is continuing to consolidate. The growing trade flows between developing economies require successful trade banks to have extensive networks, with on-the-ground capabilities linked to global platforms offering a wide range of trade services and financing. The best trade banks are constantly innovating and enhancing their trade products to meet the evolving needs of their customers.
BRIC economies ready to dump dollar
If OPEC moves to the Euro after this, we're fucked.
China and four other leading high-growth economies have taken landmark steps toward lowering the importance of the dollar in international financial transactions â part of a seminal shift in the move towards a multicurrency reserve and trading system.
Mind you, you wouldn't get an idea of anything dramatic from reading the official Chinese press on the conclusion of a summit meeting of the so-called BRICS economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in the southern resort twin of Sanya in southern China last week